S. 2881 — A bill to provide for the transfer of administrative jurisdiction over certain Federal land in the State of California, and for other purposes.

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Provide for the transfer of administrative jurisdiction over certain… — reported and queued, quiet for 122 days; 6% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

30%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 41% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 60 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 30–94 (quartiles 49–74). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 41% (simple-majority P = 76%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	64 [38–96]	84%
passage	95%	59 [29–93]	75%

Receipts

Sponsor: Alex Padilla (D). Latest action (2026-02-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported with an amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).