S. 2882 — Continuing Appropriations and Extensions and Other Matters Act, 2026

—becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Continuing Appropriations and Extensions and Other Matters… — must-pass class. On the calendar, quiet for 240 days; the — reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

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reaches a floor vote

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passes if voted (stage model)

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survives downstream

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becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 31–95 (quartiles 52–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 84%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	68 [44–95]	92%
passage	95%	62 [30–94]	83%

Receipts

Sponsor: Patty Murray (D). Latest action (2025-10-09): Motion by Senator Schumer to reconsider, under the order of 10/9/2025, not having voted on the prevailing side, the vote by which the third cloture motion on the motion to proceed to S. 2882 was not invoked (Record Vote No. 557) entered in Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).