S. 298 — Returning SBA to Main Street Act

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Returning SBA to Main Street Act — on the calendar, quiet for 459 days; 1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

25%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 48% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–94 (quartiles 53–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 48% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [46–95]	94%
passage	95%	65 [45–94]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joni Ernst (R). Latest action (2025-03-04): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 21.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).