S. 3012 — Shutdown Fairness Act

4%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Shutdown Fairness Act — on the calendar, quiet for 211 days; 7% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

61%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 52% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–95 (quartiles 53–87). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 52% (simple-majority P = 96%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	71 [49–97]	96%
passage	95%	68 [49–95]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ron Johnson (R). Latest action (2025-11-07): Upon reconsideration, cloture on the motion to proceed to the measure not invoked in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 53 - 43. Record Vote Number: 609.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).