S. 3041 — Tribal Warrant Fairness Act

23%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Tribal Warrant Fairness Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, on the calendar); 62% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

51%

survives downstream

23%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–96 (quartiles 55–83). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 62% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	72 [49–97]	96%
passage	95%	68 [42–96]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Latest action (2026-05-19): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 412.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).