S. 3062 — GUARD Act

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

GUARD Act — on the calendar, quiet for 26 days; 30% to reach the floor, 11% to become law.

30%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

38%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–95 (quartiles 53–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 52% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	67 [49–94]	96%
passage	95%	67 [47–95]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Josh Hawley (R). Latest action (2026-05-11): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 406.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).