S. 3257 — Mental Health in Aviation Act of 2025

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Mental Health in Aviation Act — reported and queued, quiet for 53 days; 30% to reach the floor, 11% to become law.

30%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

36%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 69% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 30% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 73 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 50–97 (quartiles 57–91). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 69% (simple-majority P = 97%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	77 [49–98]	95%
passage	95%	73 [50–97]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: John Hoeven (R). Latest action (2026-04-14): Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).