S. 337 — Household Goods Shipping Consumer Protection Act

7%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Household Goods Shipping Consumer Protection Act — on the calendar, quiet for 103 days; 24% to reach the floor, 7% to become law.

24%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

29%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–95 (quartiles 53–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 52% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	68 [45–96]	94%
passage	95%	66 [44–95]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Deb Fischer (R). Latest action (2026-02-23): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 341.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).