S. 3385 — Lower Health Care Costs Act

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Lower Health Care Costs Act — on the calendar, quiet for 177 days; <1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

22%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 50% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 34–95 (quartiles 52–80). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 50% (simple-majority P = 86%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [38–96]	88%
passage	95%	63 [33–95]	86%

Receipts

Sponsor: Charles E. Schumer (D). Latest action (2025-12-11): Cloture on the motion to proceed to the measure not invoked in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 51 - 48. Record Vote Number: 644. (CR S8654-8655)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).