S. 3527 — Montana Sportsmen Conservation Act

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Montana Sportsmen Conservation Act — reported and queued, quiet for 94 days; 10% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

10%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

31%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 45% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 10% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–93 (quartiles 52–79). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 45% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	68 [48–96]	96%
passage	95%	63 [46–93]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Steve Daines (R). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).