S. 3618 — No Fentanyl on Social Media Act

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

No Fentanyl on Social Media Act — reported and queued, quiet for 53 days; 13% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

13%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 58% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 13% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 70 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–96 (quartiles 54–88). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 58% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [48–97]	94%
passage	95%	69 [48–96]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jon Husted (R). Latest action (2026-04-14): Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Ordered to be reported with amendments favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).