S. 362 — A bill to allow certain Federal minerals to be mined consistent with the Bull Mountains Mining Plan Modification, and for other purposes.

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Allow certain Federal minerals to be mined consistent with the Bull M… — on the calendar, quiet for 115 days; 18% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

18%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 60 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–88 (quartiles 52–72). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 41% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	63 [48–92]	94%
passage	95%	60 [45–88]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Steve Daines (R). Latest action (2026-02-11): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 332.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).