S. 3639 — SAT Streamlining Act

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

SAT Streamlining Act — reported and queued, quiet for 114 days; 13% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

13%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

14%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 61 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–89 (quartiles 51–73). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 40% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	63 [45–91]	94%
passage	95%	60 [45–89]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2026-02-12): Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).