S. 3674 — SCAM Act

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

SCAM Act — on the calendar, quiet for 131 days; <1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

96%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 32% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 57 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–83 (quartiles 51–65). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 32% (simple-majority P = 90%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	58 [45–84]	91%
passage	95%	57 [44–83]	90%

Receipts

Sponsor: Eric Schmitt (R). Latest action (2026-01-26): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 301.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).