S. 3700 — FAA SMS Compliance Review Act of 2026

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

FAA SMS Compliance Review Act — reported and queued, quiet for 114 days; 1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

20%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 65% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 41–96 (quartiles 56–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 65% (simple-majority P = 89%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	72 [45–97]	93%
passage	95%	68 [41–96]	89%

Receipts

Sponsor: Maria Cantwell (D). Latest action (2026-02-12): Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).