S. 3923 — Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Reauthorization Act of 2026

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Reauthorization… — reported and queued, quiet for 94 days; 11% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

11%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 52% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 11% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–96 (quartiles 53–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 52% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	74 [46–97]	92%
passage	95%	67 [47–95]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Ordered to be reported with amendments favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).