S. 410 — Love Lives On Act of 2025

12%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Love Lives On Act — would clear the Senate (86%, 58 cosponsors) but only 19% to ever get the vote.

19%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

65%

survives downstream

12%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 86% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 19% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 79 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 53–98 (quartiles 65–94). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 86% (simple-majority P = 98%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	79 [55–98]	>99%
passage	95%	79 [53–98]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jerry Moran (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).