S. 4124 — A bill to prohibit funds made available to the Department of Justice from being used to make a personal payment to the President in connection with a claim that is subject to the Federal Tort Claims Act, whether in the…

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Prohibit funds made available to the Department of Justice from being… — on the calendar, quiet for 80 days; 2% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

25%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 50% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 2% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 35–95 (quartiles 52–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 50% (simple-majority P = 84%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	67 [39–96]	88%
passage	95%	63 [34–95]	84%

Receipts

Sponsor: Charles E. Schumer (D). Latest action (2026-03-18): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 359.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).