S. 4125 — Stop Presidential Embezzlement Act

0%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Stop Presidential Embezzlement Act — on the calendar, quiet for 80 days; 0% to reach the floor, 0% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 46% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 0% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 33–94 (quartiles 51–75). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 46% (simple-majority P = 82%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	63 [35–95]	86%
passage	95%	62 [32–94]	81%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ron Wyden (D). Latest action (2026-03-18): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 360.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).