S. 4126 — A bill to address the ineligibility of Ashli Babbitt for military funeral honors.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Address the ineligibility of Ashli Babbitt for military funeral honor… — on the calendar, quiet for 80 days; 2% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

39%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 62% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 2% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 39–96 (quartiles 55–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 62% (simple-majority P = 90%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	72 [44–98]	91%
passage	95%	68 [39–96]	90%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ruben Gallego (D). Latest action (2026-03-18): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 361.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).