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S. 4161 — Maverick Act
63%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
Maverick Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 33 days; projected 336 yea if called, enactment 63%.
→
63%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 336 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 214–417
(quartiles 270–407). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
283 [185–403] |
88% |
| suspension | 88% |
343 [217–418] |
>99% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Tim Sheehy (R). Latest action (2026-05-04):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).