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S. 4164 — A bill to make technical corrections to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026.
48%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
Make technical corrections to the National Defense Authorization Act… — cleared the Senate by consent; waiting on the House, quiet for 74 days. The ~48% is the model hedging: House scheduling, not support, decides this class, and we can't yet tell its members apart.
→
48%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 327 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417
(quartiles 253–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
279 [180–413] |
87% |
| suspension | 88% |
334 [215–417] |
99% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Roger F. Wicker (R). Latest action (2026-03-24):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).