S. 4344 — A bill to extend section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 for 3 years.

10%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Extend section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 19… — on the calendar, quiet for 24 days; 18% to reach the floor, 10% to become law.

18%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

55%

survives downstream

10%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 49% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–95 (quartiles 53–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	71 [49–98]	94%
passage	95%	66 [46–95]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Tom Cotton (R). Latest action (2026-05-13): Cloture motion on the motion to proceed withdrawn by unanimous consent in Senate. (CR S2249)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).