S. 4378 — Protecting American Taxpayers Act

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Protecting American Taxpayers Act — on the calendar, quiet for 40 days; 5% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

42%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 47% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 5% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–94 (quartiles 52–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 47% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [48–96]	94%
passage	95%	65 [49–93]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joni Ernst (R). Latest action (2026-04-27): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 401.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).