S. 4486 — A bill to amend title 3, United States Code, to prescribe a process to authorize certain activities at the Executive Residence at the White House, and for other purposes.

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Amend title 3, United States Code, to prescribe a process to authoriz… — on the calendar, quiet for 25 days; 6% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

38%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 37% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 60 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–88 (quartiles 51–71). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 37% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	62 [40–90]	94%
passage	95%	60 [47–88]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Rand Paul (R). Latest action (2026-05-12): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 408.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).