535.fyi Calibrated odds on what Congress actually does. backtest-calibrated · live scoring as votes land · track record

← all forecasts

S. 503 — NET Act

36%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

NET Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 208 days; projected 333 yea if called, enactment 36%.

passed the Senate
36%
downstream: House + President
=
36%
becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 333 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 214–417 (quartiles 271–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

ProcedureLikelihood Projected yeaPasses
passage12% 303 [205–415] 94%
suspension88% 337 [216–417] 98%

Receipts

Sponsor: John W. Hickenlooper (D). Latest action (2025-11-10): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).