S. 524 — Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2025

26%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Coast Guard Authorization Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 453 days; projected 304 yea if called, enactment 26%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

26%

downstream: House + President

26%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–415 (quartiles 224–392). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	272 [201–399]	87%
suspension	88%	309 [209–415]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2025-03-10): Held at the Desk
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).