S. 546 — Technical Correction to the Shoshone-Paiute Tribes of the Duck Valley Reservation Water Rights Settlement Act of 2025

52%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Technical Correction to the Shoshone-Paiute Tribes of the Duck Valley… — cleared the Senate by consent; waiting on the House, quiet for 173 days. The ~52% is the model hedging: House scheduling, not support, decides this class, and we can't yet tell its members apart.

✓

passed the Senate

→

52%

downstream: House + President

52%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 325 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–416 (quartiles 265–398). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	280 [177–411]	86%
suspension	88%	331 [215–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Latest action (2025-12-15): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).