S. 563 — Ohkay Owingeh Rio Chama Water Rights Settlement Act of 2025

18%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Ohkay Owingeh Rio Chama Water Rights Settlement Act of 2025 — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, on the calendar); 55% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

41%

survives downstream

18%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 34–95 (quartiles 53–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 55% (simple-majority P = 86%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [32–97]	90%
passage	95%	65 [34–95]	85%

Receipts

Sponsor: Martin Heinrich (D). Latest action (2026-06-04): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 428.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).