S. 582 — Astronaut Ground Travel Support Act

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Astronaut Ground Travel Support Act — on the calendar, quiet for 220 days; 15% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

15%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–92 (quartiles 51–76). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 43% (simple-majority P = 89%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	60 [39–91]	87%
passage	95%	62 [40–92]	89%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2025-10-29): Star Print ordered on report 119-82.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).