S. 6 — Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act — on the calendar, quiet for 500 days; 4% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

26%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 45% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–93 (quartiles 52–79). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 45% (simple-majority P = 96%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	65 [49–93]	97%
passage	95%	64 [49–93]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: James Lankford (R). Latest action (2025-01-22): Cloture on the motion to proceed to the measure not invoked in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 52 - 47. Record Vote Number: 11. (CR S294-295)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).