S. 640 — Technical Corrections to the Northwestern New Mexico Rural Water Projects Act, Taos Pueblo Indian Water Rights Settlement Act, and Aamodt Litigation Settlement Act

42%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Technical Corrections to the Northwestern New Mexico Rural Water Proj… — cleared the Senate by consent; waiting on the House, quiet for 173 days. The ~42% is the model hedging: House scheduling, not support, decides this class, and we can't yet tell its members apart.

✓

passed the Senate

→

42%

downstream: House + President

42%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 337 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 216–417 (quartiles 290–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	272 [155–408]	84%
suspension	88%	346 [221–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ben Ray Luján (D). Latest action (2025-12-15): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).