S. 649 — Guard and Reserve GI Bill Parity Act of 2025

5%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Guard and Reserve GI Bill Parity Act — reported and queued, quiet for 80 days; 10% to reach the floor, 5% to become law.

10%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

47%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 61% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 10% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 71 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–97 (quartiles 55–89). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 61% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	71 [48–97]	94%
passage	95%	71 [49–97]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jerry Moran (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).