S. 654 — A bill to amend title 38, United States Code, to establish an external provider scheduling program to assist the Department of Veterans Affairs in scheduling appointments for care and services under the Veterans Communi…

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Amend title 38, United States Code, to establish an external provider… — on the calendar, quiet for 186 days; 6% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

45%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 55% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–96 (quartiles 53–87). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 55% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	71 [50–97]	97%
passage	95%	69 [48–96]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jerry Moran (R). Latest action (2025-12-02): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 274.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).