S. 700 — A bill to require the Secretary of Agriculture to convey the Pleasant Valley Ranger District Administrative Site to Gila County, Arizona.

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Require the Secretary of Agriculture to convey the Pleasant Valley Ra… — reported and queued, quiet for 122 days; 8% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

26%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 47% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 32–94 (quartiles 51–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 47% (simple-majority P = 83%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [41–96]	90%
passage	95%	62 [30–94]	82%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mark Kelly (D). Latest action (2026-02-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported with an amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).