S. 714 — Critical Mineral Consistency Act of 2025

4%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Critical Mineral Consistency Act — on the calendar, quiet for 115 days; 17% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

17%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

23%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 48% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 17% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–93 (quartiles 52–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 48% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	70 [50–95]	98%
passage	95%	64 [48–93]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mike Lee (R). Latest action (2026-02-11): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 335.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).