S. 727 — U.S. Customs and Border Protection Officer Retirement Technical Corrections Act

46%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Officer Retirement Technical Corre… — cleared the Senate by consent; waiting on the House, quiet for 171 days. The ~46% is the model hedging: House scheduling, not support, decides this class, and we can't yet tell its members apart.

✓

passed the Senate

→

46%

downstream: House + President

46%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 350 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 218–418 (quartiles 310–408). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	293 [171–414]	91%
suspension	88%	357 [230–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gary C. Peters (D). Latest action (2025-12-17): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).