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S. 736 — Lieutenant Osvaldo Albarati Stopping Prison Contraband Act
18%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
on_calendar
Lieutenant Osvaldo Albarati Stopping Prison Contraband Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, on the calendar); 72% if called.
×
>99%
passes if voted (stage model)
If it reaches the floor
Projected 75 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 51–97
(quartiles 59–93). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 72%
(simple-majority P = 98%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 5% |
74 [51–98] |
98% |
| passage | 95% |
75 [51–97] |
98% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Chuck Grassley (R). Latest action (2026-05-19):
Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 410.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).