S. 766 — Billion Dollar Boondoggle Act of 2025

38%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Billion Dollar Boondoggle Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 80 days; projected 339 yea if called, enactment 38%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

38%

downstream: House + President

38%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 339 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 213–418 (quartiles 277–409). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	271 [200–401]	88%
suspension	88%	348 [223–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joni Ernst (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship. Hearings held.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).