S. 815 — A bill to designate the outdoor amphitheater at the Blue Ridge Music Center in Galax, Virginia, as the "Rick Boucher Amphitheater".

1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Designate the outdoor amphitheater at the Blue Ridge Music Center in… — reported and queued, quiet for 94 days; 4% to reach the floor, 1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 59% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 37–95 (quartiles 54–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 59% (simple-majority P = 88%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	70 [42–97]	90%
passage	95%	66 [37–95]	88%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mark R. Warner (D). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).