S. 836 — Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act

37%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 82 days; projected 340 yea if called, enactment 37%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

37%

downstream: House + President

37%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 340 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 216–417 (quartiles 298–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	290 [188–414]	88%
suspension	88%	347 [221–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Edward J. Markey (D). Latest action (2026-03-16): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).