S. 856 — Disclosing Foreign Influence in Lobbying Act

41%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Disclosing Foreign Influence in Lobbying Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 171 days; projected 343 yea if called, enactment 41%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

41%

downstream: House + President

41%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 343 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 213–418 (quartiles 282–409). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	284 [205–396]	88%
suspension	88%	351 [221–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Chuck Grassley (R). Latest action (2025-12-17): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).