S. 861 — Disaster Assistance Simplification Act

32%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Disaster Assistance Simplification Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 171 days; projected 325 yea if called, enactment 32%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

32%

downstream: House + President

32%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 325 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 212–416 (quartiles 258–398). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	292 [197–414]	93%
suspension	88%	329 [213–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gary C. Peters (D). Latest action (2025-12-17): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).