S. 872 — Stop Secret Spending Act of 2025

16%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Stop Secret Spending Act — on the calendar, quiet for 80 days; 38% to reach the floor, 16% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

43%

survives downstream

16%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–96 (quartiles 53–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 53% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [51–98]	96%
passage	95%	67 [48–95]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joni Ernst (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship. Hearings held.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).