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S. 909 — La Paz County Solar Energy and Job Creation Act
6%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
on_calendar
La Paz County Solar Energy and Job Creation Act — on the calendar, quiet for 115 days; 18% to reach the floor, 6% to become law.
×
99%
passes if voted (stage model)
The gap: on the floor this would pass —
48% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part:
18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.
If it reaches the floor
Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 32–94
(quartiles 51–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 48%
(simple-majority P = 83%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 5% |
68 [43–96] |
91% |
| passage | 95% |
62 [31–94] |
82% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Ruben Gallego (D). Latest action (2026-02-11):
Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 336.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).