S. 924 — Further Additional Continuing Appropriations and Other Extensions Act, 2025

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Further Additional Continuing Appropriations and Other Exte… — must-pass class. On the calendar, quiet for 452 days; the <1% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

39%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 50% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 35–95 (quartiles 52–80). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 50% (simple-majority P = 85%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [44–97]	92%
passage	95%	64 [34–95]	85%

Receipts

Sponsor: Patty Murray (D). Latest action (2025-03-11): Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 25.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).