S. 933 — NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2025

5%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

NASA Transition Authorization Act — reported and queued, quiet for 94 days; 28% to reach the floor, 5% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–93 (quartiles 52–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 47% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	65 [49–92]	96%
passage	95%	65 [47–93]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).