535.fyi Calibrated odds on what Congress actually does. backtest-calibrated · live scoring as votes land · track record

← all forecasts

S.Con.Res. 15 — A concurrent resolution expressing support for America's law enforcement professionals.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Expressing support for America's law enforcement professionals. — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 348 days; projected 325 yea if called, enactment <1%.

passed the Senate
<1%
downstream: House + President
=
<1%
becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 325 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 243–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

ProcedureLikelihood Projected yeaPasses
passage24% 306 [206–412] 94%
resolution22% 297 [205–411] 91%
suspension55% 343 [215–418] 99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bill Cassidy (R). Latest action (2025-06-23): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).