S.Con.Res. 22 — A concurrent resolution setting forth the congressional budget for the United States Government for fiscal year 2026 and setting forth the appropriate budgetary levels for fiscal years 2027 through 2035.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Setting forth the congressional budget for the United States Governme… — must-pass class. On the calendar, quiet for 263 days; the <1% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 86% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 56 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 36–84 (quartiles 51–62). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Privileged measure (CRA / reconciliation / similar): not filibusterable — a simple majority is the real line.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	11%	55 [28–82]	82%
passage	59%	54 [34–79]	84%
resolution	30%	61 [42–91]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Rand Paul (R). Latest action (2025-09-16): Motion to proceed to consideration of measure rejected in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 36 - 62. Record Vote Number: 521. (: CR S6635-6637)
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).