S.J.Res. 102 — A joint resolution disapproving the action of the District of Columbia Council in approving the D.C. Income and Franchise Tax Conformity and Revision Temporary Amendment Act of 2025.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Disapproving the action of the District of Columbia Council in approv… — on the calendar, quiet for 122 days; <1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 41% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 61 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–89 (quartiles 51–73). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 41% (simple-majority P = 92%).

Receipts

Sponsor: Rick Scott (R). Latest action (2026-02-04): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 314.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).